The drop in global industrial production and transportation during the winter and spring of 2020 was a massive, unprecedented event—probably not seen since World War II. While the full economic and social impact is still hard to measure or predict, it’s already raising serious questions about how to manage today’s complex and panic-driven world.
Passenger flights were grounded, cruise ships canceled, and many industries either slowed down or stopped production, which shifted demand for transport and logistics. This caused aircraft leasing prices to spike and raised the cost of delivering goods per mile.
Even though high-speed production models—designed in the late 20th century—represent just a small portion of global trade, they’ve created transcontinental supply chains that are now vital to the economy. What once seemed like a simple idea—that cheap goods paired with low shipping costs could fuel the global economy—turned out to be fragile, with everything coming to a halt almost overnight.
Let’s take a closer look at how these broken supply chains impact essential services in densely populated areas, such as company vehicles for household services like mail, parcel delivery, airport shuttles, garbage collection, and food distribution. When these services are disrupted, it causes major chaos, and rebuilding them can be extremely expensive.
For instance, hospitals overwhelmed with patients may struggle to maintain other services, such as patient transfers. Social distancing and the drop in demand for taxis also limit the number of people who can be transported, further stressing transportation systems. This results in short-term traffic congestion as supply chains for these services crumble.
Food distribution is another area hit hard. With supply chains disrupted, grocery stores face shortages, deliveries are delayed, and food prices rise. Essential items, once taken for granted, become harder to access, especially for people relying on public transportation. The fragility of the food distribution network becomes evident, as any delay in delivery or production causes widespread shortages in urban areas.
Definition of Supply Chain
Before diving into how supply chains get disrupted, let’s break down what a “supply chain” actually is. Basically, it’s the whole network of people and businesses involved in getting goods or services from their starting point to the end user. This includes producers, transporters, warehouses, retailers, and the final consumers. The end user can be an individual buying something for personal use or an organization that processes or distributes those goods further.
Supply chains operate on two levels: the bigger picture (from the point of origin to the final destination) and the smaller steps in between (like the stages where goods are stored or transported). All these parts need to work together smoothly to keep things moving from start to finish.
Factors Contributing to Supply Chain Disruption
The idea of “supply chain resiliency” started gaining attention after disruptions from things like tech failures, terrorist attacks, and natural disasters. These events pushed companies to design systems that could better handle unexpected problems. But traditionally, most businesses have focused more on cutting costs and maximizing efficiency when designing their supply chains. Risk management hasn’t always taken into account the big picture, especially when it comes to cross-regional or global dynamics in densely populated areas.
And since supply chains often stretch across borders, disruptions can start in one region or country and cause problems in another. This makes it crucial to consider all risks, especially those that could trigger a chain reaction of failures after an external threat. In fact, the fear of supply chain breakdowns can motivate companies to relocate production or move operations closer to customers.
Major disruptive events have highlighted the need for better supply chain design and management. Examples include the September 11 attacks, the SARS outbreak, and Hurricane Katrina, along with later disasters like the Great East Japan Earthquake and the Thailand floods.
For instance, the nuclear meltdown at Fukushima after the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami caused widespread power outages and fuel shortages, driving more attention to risk management in supply chains. Locations that are particularly vulnerable need extra support from local and central governments to protect the people and systems living there.
Unfortunately, many risk management strategies are kept within the organizations that are part of the global supply chain, while governments either pass the risks on to consumers or fail to provide a proper response. This can have serious consequences for densely populated areas, potentially jeopardizing long-term sustainability if recovery and adaptation efforts aren’t put in place.
Natural Disasters
In densely populated areas, the high concentration of activities naturally leads to numerous overlapping supply chains. Cities that continue to grow without setting aside buffer storage areas—due to rising wealth and urban sprawl—tend to fuel consumption, which also leads to more waste.
This puts pressure on the supply chains that keep things moving. Because these areas are so dense, businesses are often forced to rely on tight, just-in-time deliveries to manage storage constraints. A lot of these deliveries happen underground, which can create a false sense of security for residents who may not see the waste and inefficiencies building up behind the scenes.
Unplanned supply chain disruptions, especially during natural disasters like landslides or floods, can cause serious problems. While these events are unpredictable by nature, they can still be mitigated with careful planning and investment in both physical infrastructure and softer systems like communication and coordination. For instance, heavy rainfall can lead to flooding both above and below ground, cutting off supply chains and making recovery harder. While it’s essential to prepare for large-scale disasters, it’s equally important to recognize that smaller, less dramatic events can also chip away at supply chain stability over time.
Terrorist attack
In the 21st century, we’ve already witnessed the devastating impacts of major terrorist attacks. Events like 9/11 in 2001 and the terror spread by ISIS in the early 2010s are still fresh in our memories. It doesn’t take much to imagine the panic that would follow if a physical or biological weapon—like a vial of smallpox or a small nuclear device—were unleashed in a densely populated area.
The immediate destruction from something like a building collapse, a poison cloud, or a radioactive leak would be bad enough. But the real disaster would be the economic and infrastructure fallout. For example, 9/11 led to massive financial losses, and even smaller incidents, like the Lockerbie bombing, cost the U.S. a staggering amount—almost as much as Hurricane Katrina.
And in today’s highly connected and tech-dependent world, we’re even more vulnerable to cyberattacks. These could easily disrupt the fragile infrastructure we rely on for everything. It wouldn’t take a super-sophisticated plot to create chaos—terrorists could target something like airport infrastructure, causing flight path disruptions and widespread confusion.
EMP-type event
An EMP, or electromagnetic pulse, is a major disruption in the electromagnetic field. There are several potential sources for this, including a high-altitude detonation of a nuclear weapon, known as a HEMP (high-altitude electromagnetic pulse). Other possible causes include solar events, like massive solar storms, which can also generate EMP effects. For example, a large solar storm in 1859 overloaded telegraph wires, even causing forest fires in the U.S. and Europe. More recently, in 1989, a solar storm knocked out the Canadian power grid, highlighting how vulnerable our electrical systems can be.
EMP events can cause widespread and immediate disruptions to electricity and power services, particularly damaging critical infrastructure on a large scale. The fallout from an EMP could be far-reaching, potentially affecting entire continents and causing cascading failures in global systems. Space-related assets, like satellites, are also particularly vulnerable to EMP effects from natural events in space.
In non-nuclear EMP events, the power grid is often the most severely impacted. The damage comes from the high intensity and long duration of the induced current, which can overwhelm the grid’s ability to function properly, even after a relatively short event. Despite the risks, electric power facilities in the U.S. aren’t currently required to take quick action to protect critical equipment from long-term damage caused by EMP events. Interestingly, regions with lower electrical vulnerability may have more advanced grid monitoring and protective systems in place than areas that are at greater risk.
Consequences of Broken Supply Chains in Densely Populated Areas
The breakdown of any supply chain can cause serious problems, no matter where it happens, but it’s especially bad when it affects critical goods like energy, medicine, or food in large, densely populated areas. When a bridge collapses, waterways are blocked, or a war or natural disaster makes transportation impossible, getting these essentials into cities becomes a major challenge. The real trouble begins in populated regions, where the impact is felt almost immediately. Within hours, the flow of food and supplies into the city stops, and if the situation lasts long enough, you’ll start to see alarming signs of shortages.
Big cities are particularly vulnerable to supply chain breakdowns. They rely on a constant stream of goods and resources from the surrounding areas. When supply chains fail, the weak points become obvious quickly, and the complexity of managing information and logistics in densely populated areas skyrockets. Catastrophes reveal just how dependent cities are on these critical supply chains, and it’s often surprising just how much this reliance goes unnoticed until something goes wrong.
Shortages of Essential Goods
In the first few weeks after the pandemic was declared in early 2020, even the most well-prepared supply chains ran into problems. Inventories, which are usually stocked to cover disruptions for a certain period, were quickly depleted. Orders placed by businesses couldn’t be filled fast enough, leaving shelves empty.
Densely populated areas were hit harder than rural ones because space is more expensive in cities, meaning they had less stock to begin with. Panic buying made things worse, especially in places that relied heavily on “just-in-time” inventory systems.
The immediate impact wasn’t always a complete lack of goods, but rather skyrocketing prices for basic necessities and long lines to get what was available. Panic buying and hoarding caused temporary shortages of everything from food and water to medication, cleaning products, and medical supplies like masks, gloves, and hand sanitizer.
In some cases, regular customers were left out, with these items going to wealthier individuals first, which fueled even more frustration and aggressive behavior. People would go from store to store, buying up whatever they could find in large quantities.
Store policies initially couldn’t keep up with the demand, but after a period of severe shortages, limits were placed on how much one person could buy. In some countries, authorities called for community solidarity to help reduce the effects of hoarding and ensure everyone had access to essentials.
Rioting and Looting Erupting
The rioting and looting we saw during lockdowns, especially following George Floyd’s death, follow a familiar pattern tied to our environment. It starts with unity, where people help each other and acknowledge that something must be done about food shortages, job loss, and rising infections. But when empathy and outside support are lacking, sadness shifts to frustration and anger. People can only rely on their neighbors for so long before realizing their problems are too big to solve within their own community, especially when suffering in other cities becomes glaringly visible.
As desperation grows, and with the usual responses from institutions failing, people feel a pressing need to act. Frustration turns to collective anger, often directed at symbolic targets like businesses or wealthier neighbors. Groups that normally don’t get along come together in a shared rage, targeting commercial properties that represent the system they believe is responsible for their suffering. Pharmacies, for instance, might expect insurance payouts after being looted, but they become prime targets for those seeking drugs. Attacking banks feels symbolic, but with locked vaults and no money available, the efforts are futile. Looters instead turn to ATMs, which are quickly torn out and emptied with the help of opportunists—people recruited through social media by those exploiting the chaos for profit.
People Resorting to Cannibalism and Other Practices to Obtain Nourishment
Throughout history, extreme situations have pushed individuals and communities to make unimaginable choices in the face of starvation. During times of severe food scarcity—whether due to natural disasters, prolonged conflicts, or pandemics—people have occasionally resorted to cannibalism and other desperate measures to survive.
In dire circumstances, when food supplies are cut off and traditional sources of nourishment dwindle, the instinct for survival can override social and moral norms. Historical examples abound, such as the Great Famine in Ireland during the 1840s, where some individuals turned to cannibalism as a last resort. In modern contexts, incidents during crises—such as the Siege of Leningrad during World War II—saw individuals driven to horrific lengths to find food, with reports of cannibalism surfacing as desperation set in.
Cannibalism typically emerges in extreme conditions where people feel they have no other choice. This act, often shrouded in stigma and horror, is driven by primal survival instincts. It represents a complete breakdown of societal norms and an illustration of the human condition when pushed to its limits. As food scarcity becomes a pressing issue, individuals may begin to prioritize their survival over deeply ingrained ethical beliefs, leading them to view others not as fellow humans but as potential sources of nourishment.
In addition to cannibalism, other desperate practices may arise. For example, some people might forage for wild plants, insects, or even resort to hunting small animals, regardless of the risks associated with consuming unknown or potentially toxic food sources. In urban settings where traditional food sources are disrupted, individuals may scavenge through garbage or abandoned areas for anything edible. The instinct to survive drives creativity in finding nourishment, with some turning to unconventional sources such as pet food or other non-human food items.
Moreover, communities may form survival groups, pooling their resources and knowledge to navigate the crisis. In such groups, some individuals might trade or barter services for food, creating informal economies focused on nourishment. While some may resort to violence or theft to secure food, others could band together to increase their chances of survival through mutual support.
The resort to cannibalism and other extreme measures for nourishment during crises underscores the fragile nature of social order and the strength of the human will to survive. These behaviors serve as stark reminders of what can happen when a community’s basic needs are not met, highlighting the importance of food security and sustainable practices to prevent such desperate situations from arising in the first place.
How Likely Is Such a Crisis to Occur and Did It Happen Before?
Supply chain disruptions are not just theoretical scenarios; they have occurred frequently throughout history and continue to pose significant risks in our interconnected world. Various factors can lead to these disruptions, making it crucial to understand their likelihood and historical context.
Historical Instances of Supply Chain Disruptions
World War II: The impact of global conflict on supply chains is perhaps one of the most significant historical examples. During WWII, countries faced severe shortages of essential goods due to blockades, bombings, and resource reallocation for war efforts. The disruption of trade routes and the destruction of infrastructure led to critical shortages of food, fuel, and other necessities.
The 1973 Oil Crisis: Triggered by an oil embargo imposed by OPEC nations, this crisis led to skyrocketing oil prices and widespread fuel shortages. The resulting economic turmoil affected transportation and manufacturing, illustrating how a sudden shock to one aspect of the supply chain can ripple through entire economies.
Natural Disasters: Events like Hurricane Katrina in 2005 disrupted supply chains across the Gulf Coast and beyond. The storm damaged critical infrastructure, including roads and ports, leading to significant delays in the delivery of goods. The aftermath highlighted how vulnerable supply chains can be to natural disasters, particularly in densely populated areas.
The COVID-19 Pandemic: The most recent and relevant example of widespread supply chain disruption occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Lockdowns, labor shortages, and transportation bottlenecks led to shortages of essential goods, including food and medical supplies. The crisis exposed the fragility of just-in-time inventory systems, prompting many companies to reconsider their supply chain strategies to build more resilience against future disruptions.
While supply chain disruptions may seem like isolated incidents, they are part of a broader, interconnected system. Historical events highlight the significant impact these disruptions can have on economies and societies, emphasizing the need for resilience and proactive planning.
What Can You Do As a Prepper?
The goal for you is to do everything in your powers to get ready in a densely populated area, where logistical challenges are more likely to arise. The better prepared you are, the less strain you put on government resources that might be overwhelmed in a crisis. Becoming more self-sufficient can also help you face potential threats with a bit more confidence. Often, feelings of hopelessness or helplessness are tied to a lack of preparation, which you can counter by being proactive.
Take the time to create a thoughtful plan and stock up on essentials, and make it a habit to review and update your plans at least once a year. Consider keeping digital copies of important documents on a USB drive, SD card, network-attached storage, or in cloud storage. Practicing your strategy with family members can help clarify everyone’s needs and expectations when it comes time to act. Make sure to share your emergency plan with at least one other family member so they can guide others in your absence.
Diversification of Supplies
The recent global supply chain disruptions highlighted the need for stronger domestic production capabilities. To avoid repeating past mistakes, consider modifying your commercial strategies to diversify your supplies and encourage local food and material production. This shift could reduce competition in the global market and bolster local economies.
Local demand for fresh products can fluctuate due to various factors, including seasonal cycles. In contrast, global demand tends to be more stable but can be underestimated during periods of growth, as consumers often buy out-of-season items that aren’t staples.
Making Stashes
Creating stashes of essential supplies is a smart way to prepare for unexpected situations. Whether it’s natural disasters, supply chain disruptions, or other emergencies, having a thoughtful stash can provide peace of mind.
Start by figuring out what items are essential for your specific needs. Consider necessities for your family during a crisis, like non-perishable food such as canned goods and dried grains, along with water—aim for at least one gallon per person per day for three days. A well-stocked first aid kit is invaluable, so include bandages, antiseptics, medications, and personal prescriptions. Don’t forget sanitation products like soap, hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and feminine hygiene items. Tools and gear, such as flashlights, batteries, and camping equipment, can also be crucial.
Think about where to store your supplies. Designate a cool, dry area in your home, like a basement, closet, or garage. You might also keep a smaller stash in your car, especially if you travel often, including water, snacks, and a basic first aid kit. If you spend a lot of time at work, consider having some essentials there too.
Organizing your stashes is key for easy access. Label containers clearly with contents and expiration dates, and consider using clear bins or bags for visibility. Regularly check and rotate items based on expiration dates, using older items first.
Mental readiness is just as important as physical supplies. Stay informed about potential threats in your area and practice drills with your family so everyone knows where the stash is and how to access it quickly. Be flexible, as your needs may change over time—update your stash as necessary.
Think about collaborating with friends, family, or neighbors to create a community stash. Sharing resources can help you access a broader variety of items and reduce individual costs. In a crisis, having a supportive group can be a significant advantage.
By taking the time to create well-planned stashes, you’ll be better equipped to handle emergencies. This preparation not only gets you physically ready but also gives you the confidence to face whatever challenges come your way.
Make a Plan to Bail Out
When faced with supply chain disruptions, having a bail-out plan is crucial for ensuring your survival. Start by assessing your current situation and its vulnerabilities, such as the availability of essential resources like food and water. Identify alternative locations that offer better access to supplies, especially rural or less populated areas known for their self-sufficiency and community resilience.
Next, plan your evacuation routes, using maps or navigation apps to chart paths to these safer places. Monitor conditions along these routes to avoid potential hazards like road closures or civil disturbances. Prepare a go-bag filled with non-perishable food, water purification tools, first aid supplies, and important documents, ensuring you’re ready to relocate quickly.
Communicate the plan with your family, assigning roles to make sure everyone knows what to do in an emergency. Conduct practice runs to familiarize yourselves with the evacuation process and make adjustments as needed. Stay informed about local and global conditions through alerts and community networks to understand resource availability in your potential relocation areas.
Flexibility is essential, as situations can change rapidly. Regularly reassess your plan based on new information and trust your instincts if you feel conditions are worsening. By proactively developing a bail-out strategy, you enhance your chances of securing necessary resources and reduce anxiety during uncertain times, ultimately ensuring the safety and self-sufficiency of you and your loved ones.
Concluding
If the supply chain fails in your city, how long do you think it will be before people start resorting to looting for food or, even more disturbingly, turning to cannibalism? Densely populated areas are like ticking time bombs when it comes to survival; even minor crises can paralyze a city. If you live in a crowded urban environment, it’s essential to understand the potential risks and prepare for when things go south.
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